Nifty movement in this week will be governed by the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy meeting (scheduled to meet from 3-5 December), assembly elections, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement.
In the daily chart of Nifty, RSI has broken the major resistance, near 50, which shows that Nifty has become bullish. Further a new base is formed at the level of 10,500, which is expected not to broken even if some correction occurs. For the month of December, there is possibility that Nifty might trade in a range. Overall, Nifty has become bullish and is expected to reach at the level of 11000-11200 in near term and will remain as BUY above the level of 10500-10700.
Major Events in the Near Term for Nifty
On the political front, the polling in Rajasthan and Telangana will be held on 7 December 2018. Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram were held on 28 November 2018. The election to the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly was held in two phases 12 and 20 November 2018. Counting of votes will occur across all the five states on 11 December 2018.
On the global front, the investors are looking for outcome of the two-day G-20 summit in Argentina which began on Friday. Trade will be high on the agenda at the G20. The investors will monitoring the talks between the United States and China for any signs of a breakthrough that would ease tensions and help avoid more tariffs.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for November will be unveiled on 3 December 2018. Japan’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI data and US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final data for December will also be unveiled on the same day.
US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release the minutes from its November 7-8 policy meeting on 30 November 2018. On 5 December 2018, Bank of England publishes Record of the Financial Policy Committee meeting held on 20 November 2018. The Bank of England publishes its final full assessment of the health of Britain’s banks and broader financial system before the country leaves the European Union.
Overall, the out come of state election results, statement of US Federal reserve and outcome of G-20 summit, will affect the stocks of the global market and Nifty. Nifty will remain into Buy zone above the 10,500-10,700 level.
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